Half the step that failed in July. Biggest prize, worst odds — see the ladder below.
Route BBreak-even CVR drop 7.2%Predicted ~13%Confidence Low
ShipAOV up and profit per visitor holds
KillCVR −10% for 3 days straight — don't wait out the week
3
Upsell 1: $69.95 → $49.95
+$5.68range +$0.69 to +$10.68
Cut the post-purchase price to buy take rate. Today it runs 13.3% at $69.95. It has to
reach 21.1% to break even, and it is a one-click impulse offer — the
cheapest place you have to find that.
No front-end riskBreak-even take 21.1%Assumes 30%At 40% +$10.68
Shiptake rate clears 21.1%
Killtake stalls under 21% — you are just discounting
4
Cover $14.95 → $19.95
+$4.75AOV $117.42
Cushion stays at $79.95. Attach has to fall below 71% before this loses money.
Second cushion $74.90 → $69.90, per-unit price shown on both tiers. Widest range here:
every buyer who steps up adds $69.90.
Route AGet 1 is 65.6% of ordersBreak-even shift 4.4%Assumes 10% shift
ShipAOV up
KillGet 2 share flat by day 4 — then the $5 is a giveaway
6
Compare-at anchor
$0indirect only
Raise the struck-through price, touch no sell price. No direct AOV — it earns its slot by
making the Get 2 step-up look cheaper, and it costs nothing.
Margin given up $0.00Worst case flat
Shipconversion or Get 2 share improves
What a post-purchase upsell can actually earn
From the gel mattress topper workup. The question was whether a topper could add $20 per order.
It cannot — and the table shows why, for anything.
Take rate
Light accessory COGS $1
Second cushion COGS $16
Gel topper COGS $321–737
5%
$413
$428
$743–1,172
15%
$139
$153
$468–897
25%
$84
$99
$413–842
40%
$53
$68
$382–811
60%
$35
$50
$365–794
The frontier is a $35–68 item taken by 40–60% of buyers.
Nothing else clears $20. A 40kg topper needs to sell at $800–1,200 at any believable take rate, and
its $583 DHL quote may mean the quoted COGS is ex-factory anyway. Your second cushion at $49.95 is
the only thing you already stock that sits on that frontier — which is test 3.
Today Upsell 1 earns $9.30 of AOV per order ($69.95 at 13.3%). The doc's own
best case for the topper was $3.30.
Why test 2 is flagged
$69.95 → $79.95 raised price 14% and conversion went up.
$79 → $94 raised it 19% and halved conversion. The cliff is in between and nobody has looked.
Read the AOV column alone and you get both answers
wrong. Your best-ever test lost $6.96 of AOV. Your best-ever AOV gain cost 38% of profit.
Grow AOV — just don't judge a test on it by itself.
Drop Get 3 / Get 4 tiersCuts AOV $2.64. Only 3.3% of orders but the biggest ones.
Cover name testAttach 94–100% in every arm. No headroom to measure.
Gel mattress topper upsell$321–737 landed, 40kg, $583 express freight. Needs $800–1,200 to work. Best case $3.30/order.
Supplement upsellsZero sales to existing buyers.
Cadence
134 orders a day means a 7-day 50/50 test gives ~470 orders per arm — 4.7× the SOP minimum.
Sample size isn't the constraint; day-of-week coverage is. One week each, starting after
Listicle vs Hybrid closes.
Week 1Spare cover add-on+$7.47
Week 2Cushion $84.95 probe+$6.65
Week 3Upsell 1 → $49.95+$5.68
Week 4Cover $19.95+$4.75
Week 5Get 1 → Get 2 gap+$3.03
Week 6Compare-at anchor$0
All six at base case: AOV $112.67 → $140.25,
+$27.58. Tests 1, 3 and 5 carry no front-end risk and are $16.18 of that.